Core answer: Due date (EDD) = first day of last menstrual period (LMP) + 280 days (40 weeks), assuming a 28-day cycle — Naegele's rule. Shortcut: LMP − 3 months + 7 days (+ 1 year). Example: LMP 2025-03-10 → EDD 2025-12-15. Only ~4–5% of babies arrive on the exact date; 37–42 weeks is the normal window. Long cycles add days: cycle 35 days → EDD = Naegele + 7.
Naegele's rule, worked
LMP March 10, 2025 → minus 3 months = Dec 10, 2024 → plus 7 days = Dec 17, 2024 → adjust year: Dec 17, 2024? No — count carefully: Mar 10 + 280 days = Dec 15, 2025. The −3 months + 7 days + 1 year shortcut gives the same: Dec 17 is the arithmetic for some edge alignments — always verify with the day count. Our calculator does the 280-day addition exactly.
What shifts the estimate
| Factor | Adjustment |
|---|---|
| 28-day cycle | baseline |
| 35-day cycle | + 7 days |
| 21-day cycle | − 7 days |
| Early ultrasound (8–13 wks) | most accurate — overrides LMP (±5 days) |
| IVF | EDD = transfer date + (266 − embryo age) days |
| Irregular cycles | LMP unreliable; ultrasound rules |
The timeline that matters
- Weeks 1–12 (first trimester): organ formation; NT scan at 11–13+6 weeks; morning sickness peaks ~week 9.
- Week 12: miscarriage risk drops sharply — the traditional announcement point.
- Weeks 13–27 (second): anatomy scan at 20–24 weeks; first kicks felt 18–22 (first baby) or 16–18 (subsequent).
- Weeks 28–40 (third): glucose test 24–28; growth scans; weekly checkups from 36.
- 37 weeks: full term begins. 41 weeks: most hospitals discuss induction.
Worked examples
Example 1 — Standard cycle. LMP 2025-06-01, 28-day cycle → EDD 2026-03-08. Conception ≈ 2025-06-15 (ovulation day 14).
Example 2 — Long cycle. LMP 2025-06-01, 35-day cycle → ovulation ~day 21 → EDD = 280 + 7 = 287 days → 2026-03-15.
Example 3 — IVF. Day-5 blastocyst transferred 2025-07-10 → EDD = transfer + 261 days = 2026-03-28.
Common mistakes and myths
- Pregnancy = 9 months — it's 40 weeks ≈ 9.2 calendar months; doctors count from LMP (2 weeks BEFORE conception), which confuses everyone.
- The date is a deadline — it's the center of a distribution: 50% of first babies arrive after 40+3; "overdue" starts at 42, not 40.
- Ultrasound always overrides — early scans (8–13 wk) are gold; third-trimester scans have ±3 weeks error and should NOT rewrite a solid early EDD.
- Conception date = LMP date — conception ≈ LMP + 14 (28-day cycle); the baby is ~2 weeks younger than "weeks pregnant" suggests.
- Planning events around 40w exactly — schedule the baby shower for week 32–34, not 38.