Core answer: Daily calorie needs = BMR × activity factor (TDEE), then adjust for your goal: fat loss = TDEE − 300~500 kcal (≈0.25–0.5 kg/week), muscle gain = TDEE + 200~300 kcal. A sedentary 30-year-old, 70 kg, 175 cm man: BMR ≈ 1,650 → TDEE ≈ 1,980 (×1.2); moderate exercise 3–5×/week → ≈ 2,560. A 55 kg, 160 cm woman: BMR ≈ 1,250 → TDEE ≈ 1,500–1,940. Never diet below 1,200 (women) / 1,500 (men) kcal without medical supervision.
The activity factors (honest version)
| Lifestyle | Factor | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Sedentary (desk, no exercise) | ×1.2 | most office workers |
| Light (walks, 1–3 workouts/wk) | ×1.375 | |
| Moderate (3–5 workouts/wk) | ×1.55 | regular gym-goer |
| Very active (physical job + training) | ×1.725 | |
| Athlete (2× daily training) | ×1.9 | rare |
Reality check: wearables show most "I exercise a lot" office workers burn closer to ×1.3–1.4. Overestimating activity is the #1 reason diets "don't work".
The deficit math
1 kg of body fat ≈ 7,700 kcal. A 500 kcal daily deficit → ~0.45 kg/week, ~1.8 kg/month. Larger deficits cost muscle, energy, and adherence — 10–25% below TDEE is the sustainable band.
Worked examples
Example 1 — Fat loss, male. TDEE 2,400 → eat 1,900–2,000 kcal, protein ≥1.6 g/kg (112 g at 70 kg). Expect −0.4 kg/week; after 12 weeks ≈ −5 kg with strength largely preserved.
Example 2 — Fat loss, female. TDEE 1,800 → eat 1,400–1,500 kcal. Note the floor problem: a 500-deficit from a small TDEE hits the 1,200 floor fast — shrink the deficit to 300 and accept −0.25 kg/week, or raise TDEE by moving more.
Example 3 — The weekend wipeout. Weekday deficit 500 × 5 = −2,500 kcal; Saturday dinner + drinks +3,500 kcal → net weekly surplus. Weekly totals, not daily heroics, decide results.
Example 4 — Adaptive reality. After losing 5 kg, BMR drops (~15 kcal/kg) plus the body moves less (NEAT adaptation): your old TDEE is now ~150 kcal lower. Recalculate every 4–6 weeks or progress stalls.
Common mistakes and myths
- Eating back exercise calories — trackers overestimate burn by 20–50%; eat back at most half of what the watch says.
- Crash deficits — 800 kcal diets lose muscle and rebound; the research sweet spot is boring: 10–25% deficit + protein + resistance training.
- Ignoring liquid calories — a daily latte + milk tea + juice adds 400–700 kcal that never feels like "eating".
- "Starvation mode" — metabolism adapts modestly (5–15%), it doesn't stop; stalls are usually miscounting, not broken physiology.
- Precision theater — labels allow ±20% error; hitting ±100 kcal daily is fantasy. Aim for consistent ranges and judge by the 2-week weight trend.