Bayes Theorem Calculator
Math CalculatorsPosterior probability, medical screening
Bayes Theorem Calculator: Posterior probability, medical screening. Bayes Theorem Calculator uses standard math formulas to compute accurate results instantly.
e.g. disease prevalence
P(+|sick)
P(−|healthy)
P(sick | positive test)
1.94%
Negative test → 100.00% truly healthy (NPV)
Per 10,000 people
| Test + | Test − | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sick | 10(true +) | 0(false −) | 10 |
| Healthy | 499(false +) | 9491(true −) | 9990 |
Bayes' theorem
- 1P(B) = 0.10%;P(+|B) = 99.0%;P(+|¬B) = 5.0%
- 2Joint true+ = 99.0% × 0.10% = 0.099%
- 3False+ = 5.0% × 99.90% = 4.995%
- 4PPV = 0.099 ÷ 5.094 = 1.94%
💡 The base-rate fallacy: a 99%-accurate test for a 0.1% disease still yields mostly false positives — because the healthy crowd is huge, its small false-positive slice outnumbers the true positives. This is why screening low-risk groups creates overdiagnosis, and why a positive screening result always needs a confirmatory test.
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How to Use
- Enter values or expressions: type directly into the Bayes Theorem Calculator — keyboard friendly.
- Instant results: everything computes live as you type, no button needed.
- Follow the steps: the result panel shows full working and formula substitution.
- Copy or recompute: one-click copy; change any input to recalculate instantly.
Key Points
- Bayes Theorem Calculator is a free online math tool — open and use, no sign-up.
- All calculations run locally in your browser; your data never leaves the device.
- Key capability: Posterior probability, medical screening.
- Results come with formulas and reference tables so you can verify every number.
Formula & How It Works
Bayes Theorem Calculator formula
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Source & Updates
Standard mathematical formulas. All logic verified. Last updated: 2025-07
Last updated:
Formulas and content on this page are reviewed by the YiJianSuan team. For reference only — official sources prevail.
Maintained and periodically reviewed by the YiJianSuan editorial team — review process in ourEditorial Policy.
Cite this page: YiJianSuan. Bayes Theorem Calculator[EB/OL]. https://www.yijiansuan.com/en/c/math/bayes
Results provided by this tool are for reference only and do not constitute professional advice.