Core answer: At 15,000 km/year: an ICE car at 8 L/100km and ¥8/L costs ¥9,600/yr in fuel; a comparable EV at 15 kWh/100km costs ¥1,125/yr on home charging (¥0.5/kWh) or ¥3,375 on public fast charging (¥1.5/kWh) — a saving of ¥6,200–8,500/year. Add maintenance (EV saves ~¥1,000–1,500/yr: no oil, fewer wear parts) and the 5-year gap reaches ¥35,000–50,000. EVs win on running cost; the honest caveats are resale value, insurance (+10–20%), and charging access.
The energy math
| ICE 2.0L | EV 60 kWh | |
|---|---|---|
| Consumption | 8 L/100km | 15 kWh/100km |
| Energy price | ¥8/L | ¥0.5 home / ¥1.5 public |
| Cost per 100 km | ¥64 | ¥7.5–22.5 |
| 15,000 km/year | ¥9,600 | ¥1,125–3,375 |
| 5-year energy | ¥48,000 | ¥5,600–16,900 |
The 5-year TCO table (¥150k class, 15k km/yr)
| Item | ICE | EV (home charge) |
|---|---|---|
| Purchase + tax | ¥169,700 | ¥156,500 |
| Energy 5 yr | ¥48,000 | ¥5,600 |
| Maintenance 5 yr | ¥8,000 | ¥3,000 |
| Insurance 5 yr | ¥25,000 | ¥30,000 |
| Resale after 5 yr | −¥82,000 (55%) | −¥63,000 (40%) |
| 5-year net cost | ¥168,700 | ¥132,100 |
EV saves ≈ ¥36,600 over 5 years — IF you can charge at home. All-public charging narrows it to ~¥25k, and the resale assumption is the biggest swing factor.
Worked examples
Example 1 — No home charger. Public-only at ¥1.5/kWh: EV energy ¥3,375/yr; saving vs ICE drops to ¥6,200/yr; if you also value the time spent charging (weekly 40 min), the case weakens for low-mileage drivers.
Example 2 — Low mileage. 7,000 km/yr: fuel saving shrinks to ~¥3,500/yr; 5-year gap ~¥10–15k — now battery-replacement anxiety and resale swings dominate. Low-mileage buyers should weight reliability and resale over energy cost.
Example 3 — High mileage. 30,000 km/yr (ride-hailing): EV saves ¥12,000–17,000/yr on energy alone — the decision makes itself, which is why China's taxi fleets electrified first.
Example 4 — Winter reality. Northern China: range drops 20–35% in deep winter, energy/100km rises to ~20 kWh: home-charge cost ¥15/100km — still 4× cheaper than fuel, but plan charging frequency accordingly.
Common mistakes and myths
- Comparing sticker prices only — the tax exemption + energy savings mean a ¥20k pricier EV can be cheaper over 5 years.
- Assuming all charging is home-priced — public fast charging at ¥1.5–2.0/kWh erases 60% of the energy saving.
- Battery-replacement fear math — modern LFP packs are warrantied 8 yr/150k km and typically outlast the car's first ownership; price the RISK at a few percent, not the full ¥50k pack cost.
- Ignoring insurance gap — NEV insurance runs ¥500–1,500/yr higher; include it in TCO.
- Static resale assumptions — EV resale values have been falling as new-car prices drop; check current 3-year residuals for the specific model, not brand folklore.